Modi’s Kashmir move puts India-Pakistan ties on brink

Subject

Consequences of India revoking Jammu and Kashmir's special constitutional status.

Significance

Delhi denies reports that there was a large-scale anti-India protest on August 9 in Srinagar, headquarters of the majority-Muslim Kashmir Valley. Much of Jammu and Kashmir has been on lockdown since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government on August 5 revoked the state’s special constitutional status and passed legislation to reorganise its governance. India and Pakistan administer different parts of Kashmir and dispute sovereignty over the region.

Impacts

• China is unlikely to maintain much diplomatic pressure on India, following its initial expression of opposition to Delhi’s Kashmir move.
• Islamabad will urge Washington to confront Delhi over the Kashmir issue, probably to little avail.
• In India’s north-eastern states, fears that Delhi may attenuate special local rights are unlikely to be assuaged by government denials.