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Stronger Turkish influence may not benefit Bosnia

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Subject

Turkish influence in Bosnia.

Significance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Sarajevo highlighted his powerful influence in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), as shown by the Bosnia-wide commemoration of the third anniversary of the failed coup in Turkey with numerous diplomatic, sporting and cultural events.

Impacts

  • A worsening in Turkish-US relations after Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles against strong US warnings could complicate matters.
  • Bosnian and other Balkan leaders may have to choose between the United States and Turkey, just as Serbia wavers between the West and Russia.
  • The conflicting interests of various external powers could exacerbate regional ethnic and political divisions, undermining stability.
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