Stronger Turkish influence may not benefit Bosnia

Subject

Turkish influence in Bosnia.

Significance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Sarajevo highlighted his powerful influence in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), as shown by the Bosnia-wide commemoration of the third anniversary of the failed coup in Turkey with numerous diplomatic, sporting and cultural events.

Impacts

• A worsening in Turkish-US relations after Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles against strong US warnings could complicate matters.
• Bosnian and other Balkan leaders may have to choose between the United States and Turkey, just as Serbia wavers between the West and Russia.
• The conflicting interests of various external powers could exacerbate regional ethnic and political divisions, undermining stability.