A substantial US-UK trade agreement is unlikely

Subject

UK-US trade talks.

Significance

Hard-line Brexiteers have long viewed a trade agreement with the United States as an important political and economic benefit for the United Kingdom from leaving the EU. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s determination to deliver Brexit by October 31 with or without a deal -- the latter appearing more likely -- the prospect of UK-US trade negotiations has risen up the political agenda.

Impacts

• Washington knows a trade deal is politically important to the Conservatives, strengthening its ability to drive a deal favourable to itself.
• It will be very difficult for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU.
• London’s positions on such issues as Iran and Huawei will likely affect the UK’s overall leverage with the United States.