Colombia violence to rise as elections approach

Subject

Peace process.

Significance

The 2016 peace deal between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC) was a major step towards ending more than half a century of armed conflict and was hailed by many as the dawn of a new era for Colombia. However, the roll-out of the deal is facing institutional, social and financial challenges amid increasing polarisation fuelled by President Ivan Duque’s attempts to reform the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), the transitional justice system created to facilitate the peace process.

Impacts

• The reopening of the debate on the statutory law of the JEP has set a dangerous precedent for future negotiations with other armed groups.
• Dissident FARC groups constitute a growing threat to security in a number of peripheral regions.
• Military scandals threaten further to undermine faith in the state’s commitment to peace, encouraging more demobilised rebels to rearm.
• Acts of intimidation and violence against local community leaders will increase ahead of October’s regional and local elections.