Opposition faces obstacles in Somalia’s Jubaland polls

Significance

This contest will be closely watched given the controversies that surrounded alleged FGS interference in Somalia’s last regional elections in South-west state, as well as broader perceptions that the election is not just about control of Jubaland, but also the wider balance of power between the FGS and regional states.

Impacts

• The outcome will determine whether Jubaland maintains its fractious relationship with the FGS or can transform under new leadership.
• Kenya and Ethiopia, which have thousands of troops in Jubaland, will likely support Ahmed Madobe as the most reliable security partner.
• The lack of clear legal or constitutional guidelines on election processes provides actors with latitude to try to manipulate them.