Friday, July 26, 2019
This contest will be closely watched given the controversies that surrounded alleged FGS interference in Somalia’s last regional elections in South-west state, as well as broader perceptions that the election is not just about control of Jubaland, but also the wider balance of power between the FGS and regional states.
- The outcome will determine whether Jubaland maintains its fractious relationship with the FGS or can transform under new leadership.
- Kenya and Ethiopia, which have thousands of troops in Jubaland, will likely support Ahmed Madobe as the most reliable security partner.
- The lack of clear legal or constitutional guidelines on election processes provides actors with latitude to try to manipulate them.