To read the full version of this content please select one of the options below:

Rising risks may threaten China’s steady GDP slowdown

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Subject

China growth outlook.

Significance

The statement accompanying the second-quarter national accounts that the National Bureau of Statistics released on July 14 describe a “complex and grave” situation amid rising “uncertainties". However, although the second quarter growth was the weakest since 1992 and export-orientated activity was weak, domestic spending is improving. Retail sales rose to a 15-month high of 9.9% year-on-year in June, fixed investment gained 5.8% in January-June, up from 5.6% in January-May and the services purchasing managers index continues to expand solidly, close to its historic average.

Impacts

  • The US conflict could help productivity by raising the urgency of the policy drive to support tech, innovation and higher quality growth.
  • The ultimate impact of tariffs depends on substitution choices and the sectoral and regional composition of future tariffs or concessions.
  • A property market collapse is unlikely but faster demographic ageing and slower growth and urbanisation will hit demand in the longer term.
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica
Stay up to date
Sign up to the Expert Daily Briefings email alert and receive up-to-the-minute analysis of global events as they happen.
*If your university does not have access to Expert Briefings, visit our information page to find out more.