Central Mali violence risks wider spillover

Subject

Ethnic violence.

Significance

More than 202,000 people have been displaced in central and northern Mali this year, according to a July assessment by the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), which coordinates humanitarian work. Levels of violence have nearly doubled, with 599 fatalities in the first half of 2019 compared with 333 in the same period last year, according to data from ACLED. In recognition of this, the UN Security Council has expanded the mandate of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) to include stabilisation of Mali's increasingly restive central region.

Impacts

• The security situation may increase the authorities’ bunker mentality and could empower northern actors to further sideline the state.
• Neither the UN nor France is likely to withdraw from Mali any time soon.
• The viability of the G5 Sahel Joint Force will eventually be called into question.