New Kazakh leader will prioritise caution over change

Subject

Challenges facing Kazakhstan under a new president.

Significance

When Kassym-Jomart Tokayev secured a comfortable victory in the June 9 presidential election, the vote was most notable for the new mood surrounding it: popular anger at lacklustre socio-economic development and the emergence of a new generation of political activists. In response, Tokayev's administration is weighing options for cooling passions and addressing popular grievances.

Impacts

• Further spending will increase the budget deficit and add inflationary pressure.
• In the current economic climate, events such as disasters, protests and labour disputes have the potential to escalate dramatically.
• The government will continue to pursue inward investment despite limited reforms.