‘Groupthink’ will damage Turkish foreign policy

Significance

Sanctions are triggered under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) by Turkey’s acquisition of two Russian S-400 air defence systems. Russia began delivering the S-400s on July 12. Washington has said taking delivery of the S-400s, or failing to cancel the agreement with Russia by July 31, will result in Turkey being automatically prevented from buying 100 F-35 stealth fighters that were due to form the core of its air power capabilities for decades to come.

Impacts

• The crisis with Washington will inflict further damage on the Turkish economy and lead to another currency depreciation.
• There may be other US restrictions on defence sales, including on spare parts for other US-made assets in Turkey’s inventory.
• The reassertion of regime control over Idlib will trigger another mass flight of non-combatants towards the Turkish border.