‘Groupthink’ will damage Turkish foreign policy

Monday, July 15, 2019

Significance

Sanctions are triggered under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) by Turkey’s acquisition of two Russian S-400 air defence systems. Russia began delivering the S-400s on July 12. Washington has said taking delivery of the S-400s, or failing to cancel the agreement with Russia by July 31, will result in Turkey being automatically prevented from buying 100 F-35 stealth fighters that were due to form the core of its air power capabilities for decades to come.

Impacts

  • The crisis with Washington will inflict further damage on the Turkish economy and lead to another currency depreciation.
  • There may be other US restrictions on defence sales, including on spare parts for other US-made assets in Turkey’s inventory.
  • The reassertion of regime control over Idlib will trigger another mass flight of non-combatants towards the Turkish border.
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