Greek vote may give conservatives only small majority

Significance

The conservative opposition New Democracy party (ND) leads the incumbent leftist Syriza party by a wide margin of about 7-13 percentage points in public opinion polls. That would give ND 155-165 seats in the 300-seat parliament, depending on how many other parties exceed the 3% threshold to gain seats.

Impacts

• Hopes of an ND win have raised economic sentiment to its highest level since 2010; the Athens Exchange main index is 43% up since end-2018.
• Greek debt is becoming more attractive: 6-month T-bills were auctioned this week at a 0.23% yield compared to 0.41% last month.
• An ND government will accept the Prespa Agreement but be slow to promote North Macedonia's inclusion in European institutions.