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Greek vote may give conservatives only small majority

Friday, July 5, 2019

Significance

The conservative opposition New Democracy party (ND) leads the incumbent leftist Syriza party by a wide margin of about 7-13 percentage points in public opinion polls. That would give ND 155-165 seats in the 300-seat parliament, depending on how many other parties exceed the 3% threshold to gain seats.

Impacts

  • Hopes of an ND win have raised economic sentiment to its highest level since 2010; the Athens Exchange main index is 43% up since end-2018.
  • Greek debt is becoming more attractive: 6-month T-bills were auctioned this week at a 0.23% yield compared to 0.41% last month.
  • An ND government will accept the Prespa Agreement but be slow to promote North Macedonia's inclusion in European institutions.
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