Haftar’s Tripoli campaign may continue for months more

Significance

Haftar's offensive is his first military attempt to capture the capital, though LNA forces have previously carried out airstrikes on Tripoli. Despite optimistic claims by the LNA, the assault has stalled on the outskirts of the city. However, if the assault were to become a longer attritional campaign, it could begin to erode conditions in Tripoli and ultimately jeopardise the GNA's position.

Impacts

• Fringe and extremist armed groups may try to exploit opportunities created by the fighting.
• Airstrikes or bombardments may yet cause significant civilian casualties.
• New disruptions in oil production may occur.