Prospects for Iran to end-2019.
The political and economic situation in the second half of 2019 is likely to replicate the first half. Iran’s leadership will remain defiant in response to US demands and sanctions. Despite recession (combined with inflationary pressures), Tehran is confident of maintaining political control and managing the hobbled economy. Yet without Europe’s effective countering of US sanctions, Tehran is likely to increase the costs of the economic squeeze by expanding its nuclear enrichment programme and challenging US interests and allies in the region.