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Pemex downgrades hit AMLO’s economic vision for Mexico

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Subject

Pemex downgrades

Significance

Ratings agency Fitch on June 6 downgraded the bonds issued by state-owned oil firm Pemex to BB+ from BBB-, pushing the rating into ‘speculative grade’ or ‘junk’ territory. The move came a day after Fitch downgraded the bonds of the federal government by one notch, to BBB from BBB+, citing the impact of Pemex’s financial prospects upon those of the government. Moody’s shifted its outlook for the government’s debt from stable to negative but maintained its A3 rating.

Impacts

  • The possibility of further downgrades will be a permanent shadow on the government’s economic actions at least until 2020.
  • Any downgrading would have an impact on the borrowing costs of Mexican private sector companies in international capital markets.
  • An abrupt fall in oil prices could be a death knell for Pemex, and would deal a significant blow to the exchequer.
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