Protracted Tripoli assault may harm Libya’s economy

Significance

Despite repeated disruptions to oilfields, the economy has broadly been on an improving trend, thanks to increased oil output and revenues compared with 2014-17. However, the Tripoli offensive, which has thus far made few territorial gains, carries a risk of a new deterioration.

Impacts

• Oil output will remain vulnerable to brief falls.
• The ongoing GNA-Haftar impasse will continue to deter major new foreign investment.
• The NOC and subsidiaries will maintain existing plans.