Haftar’s Tripoli attack may ebb further in Libya

Significance

Although Haftar has previously signalled his aspiration to defeat the armed forces in western Libya, this is the first time he has ordered a major assault on the capital. Haftar’s personal ambition to lead the country is well-known. However, he is also a vehicle for a section of Libyans who have felt excluded from centres of political and economic power since the 2011 revolution.

Impacts

• The status quo of fragmented zones of military control is not unsustainable.
• Security in Tripoli will generally remain adequate for local government and public services to continue to function.
• Local elections planned for some municipalities this month may still go ahead.