Dutch elections will likely reduce government’s power

Significance

The results are expected to show reduced public support for Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s four-party coalition, in response to dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living, coalition infighting about immigration, the climate agenda and the breakdown of pension reform negotiations.

Impacts

• The gun attack in Utrecht yesterday will not have a significant political impact in the short term.
• The government will come under increasing pressure to abolish costly defence spending plans, such as on additional F-35 jets.
• There will be renewed calls to have the upper chamber elected directly instead of through provincial assemblies.