Rising Zimbabwean authoritarianism will dent Mnangagwa

Significance

A violent clampdown on the opposition and civil society groups in January and February prompted the US government to renew sanctions, while the UK government has put cooperation with Harare on hold.

Impacts

• Despite regional unease at ZANU-PF’s approach, the opposition will fail to gain neighbouring countries’ official backing.
• The central bank will struggle to secure enough market confidence in a new de-facto local currency.
• Internal factionalisation within ZANU-PF could worsen between pro- and anti-Western factions.