Bilateral tensions threaten East African integration

Significance

These tensions have deep and specific roots, but the two-way spillover between trade and political disputes is an issue that has long undermined regional economic and political integration within the wider East African Community (EAC) of which both countries are members.

Impacts

• Trade imbalances and political mistrust will likely delay plans for monetary union.
• China’s economic slowdown could brake foreign direct investment (FDI) into the EAC, which would, in turn, slow regional growth.
• Kenyan mediation in the Rwanda-Uganda feud faces claims it seeks to avoid Rwanda rerouting imports via Tanzania instead of Kenya and Uganda.