Multiple pressures may focus Chadian rebel activity

Significance

On March 5, Chad closed its border with Libya and applied heightened security restrictions in the north. This follows a major incursion in February by Chadian rebels from Libya, who penetrated at least 400 kilometres into Chadian territory before being halted by French airstrikes.

Impacts

• By intervening so openly to protect Deby, Paris invites deepening anti-French sentiment in Chad and elsewhere.
• Deby has a knack for survival, but his regime appears increasingly brittle and rebels will keep probing for weaknesses.
• Fighting in southern Libya may ultimately deepen instability in northern Chad if rebels return home.