Russian-US arms treaties erode in new era of mistrust

Significance

The likely end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty will be an important marker in the decline of international stability and a particular blow to long-held assumptions about European security. It comes at a time when US-Russian dialogue has stalled and uncertainties about intentions and evolving technologies abound.

Impacts

• The INF issue will feed Moscow's narrative about encirclement by hostile forces.
• Despite delays to arms programmes, Russia has proved adept at developing and adapting smaller missile types.
• President Donald Trump is unlikely to engage meaningfully with Russia on the detail of arms control.