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Haftar’s campaign may hurt Libyan peace and oil output

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Significance

This comes at a time when key southern oilfields are offline after being occupied by protestors and when the UN is leading efforts to reunify the country and facilitate elections.

Impacts

  • Developments in the south will affect global oil prices as output there is equivalent to a third of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts.
  • If Haftar consolidates control in the south, this may reduce migrant flows via Libya to Europe.
  • As Haftar clashes with Chadian rebels in southern Libya, he may gain further support from President Idriss Deby.
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