Haftar’s campaign may hurt Libyan peace and oil output

Significance

This comes at a time when key southern oilfields are offline after being occupied by protestors and when the UN is leading efforts to reunify the country and facilitate elections.

Impacts

• Developments in the south will affect global oil prices as output there is equivalent to a third of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts.
• If Haftar consolidates control in the south, this may reduce migrant flows via Libya to Europe.
• As Haftar clashes with Chadian rebels in southern Libya, he may gain further support from President Idriss Deby.