Rakhine violence will puncture Myanmar’s peace process

Subject

Crisis in Rakhine State.

Significance

State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi last month launched her administration’s first official investment conference, emphasising opportunities in Myanmar while avoiding mention of the Rohingya crisis that has drawn international condemnation of her country’s civilian and military authorities. Separately, a conflict between the military and the ethnic Rakhine Arakan Army is intensifying.

Impacts

• Tension between Myanmar and Bangladesh will increase as Naypyidaw struggles to create the conditions conducive to refugees’ return.
• Myanmar’s ethnic conflicts and the threat of sanctions will dampen Western business interest and foreign direct investment in the country.
• Myanmar’s tourism sector, which saw a 50% decline in Western tourists last year, will be further hit.