Ankara hopes its Syrian invasion may now go ahead

Subject

Turkish objectives in Syria.

Significance

US Senator Lindsey Graham’s visit to Ankara on January 18 passed off in an exceptionally cordial atmosphere, completely unlike the frigid reception for President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton four days earlier. Graham and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked for two-and-a-half hours and said they had reached agreement over Syria.

Impacts

• The risk is growing of a dispute between the Syrian Kurds and the United States.
• Relations between Turkey and Russia are strained; Russia and the United States will combine to protect Manbij.
• Key northern Syrian routes through Idlib may be blocked and HTS will put up tough resistance if attacked.