Central Mali will face rising intercommunal tensions

Subject

Ethnic and jihadist violence in central Mali.

Significance

Mali in 2018 faced by far the highest levels of violence it has seen since the 2012 Tuareg rebellion. More than half of conflict-related deaths occurred in central Mali -- notably in Mopti Region -- where related strands of jihadist and intercommunal violence have created a complex set of conflict dynamics.

Impacts

• The recent (likely) killing of jihadist Amadou Kouffa could lead to more violence if his fighters fragment or would-be successors compete.
• The government’s domestic legitimacy will likely erode further, especially among ethnic Fulani, as its neutrality is called into question.
• Fulani will face rising suspicion throughout the Sahel, aggravating tensions in western Niger and other emerging hotspots.
• Though possible rather than probable, a worst-case scenario could see violence spread into Mali’s three southernmost regions.
• Displacement from Mopti to Bamako and elsewhere could place strains on public and private resources.