Cambodia’s main opposition could split

Subject

Cambodia's banned opposition.

Significance

The National Assembly last month passed an amendment to a law on political parties, enabling the prime minister to request the king to lift court-imposed bans on politicians. Prime Minister Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won all 125 seats in parliament’s lower house in last July’s election. The Supreme Court in November 2017 dissolved the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and gave 118 senior party officials five-year bans from politics.

Impacts

• Indicted CNRP leader Kem Sokha could receive a royal pardon as part of efforts to appease foreign critics.
• EU trade sanctions will hit Cambodia’s export-oriented garments industry, threatening Hun Sen’s support base.
• Increasing Western hostility will push Cambodia further into China’s orbit.