Palermo failure will delay Libya’s transition process

Significance

The summit reaffirmed the 2015 Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) and the UN’s Action Plan, with a revised timeline. It also affirmed efforts to unify public finances. However, few of the Libyan actors will feel bound by the summit’s closing statement. The summit also highlighted international divisions that are hampering progress.

Impacts

• The conflict will accentuate regional tensions, including between Egypt and Turkey, which back different factions.
• Stabilisation would boost oil output, driving down global prices, but further conflict could have the opposite effect.
• Progress towards stability will improve border control and impact on migrant flows to Europe and thereby internal EU politics.