Russia makes contingency plans as Ukraine talks stall

Significance

As stalemate persists on the adjacent front line between Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed rebels, Moscow's naval build-up in the Sea of Azov looks like a way of choking off maritime access. It comes at a point where Moscow has no plans to pursue a peace settlement until elections in Ukraine are over and a measure of political stability has been secured in the rebel-held east.

Impacts

• As elections loom, Poroshenko will come under attack from opposition nationalists for losing traction on the conflict.
• Moscow will weigh the risks of naval escalation against the likelihood of costly international sanctions.
• The Kremlin must simultaneously manage another set of electoral variables involving allies and foes in Moldova.