Turkish-EU relations may move to new stage

Subject

Turkish-EU relations.

Significance

Although mistrust between Turkey and its European partners looks set to continue, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said before his formal state visit to Berlin in September that German-Turkish relations were “indispensable” in the light of “dramatic world developments”. For their part, Europeans have reconciled themselves to the fact that Erdogan, imperfect as he may be, is a fixture for the foreseeable future.

Impacts

• Erdogan will dangle a formal termination of Turkey’s EU process before his own base and nationalists who view the West with animosity.
• European free speech and human rights advocates will decry the soft line on the increasingly authoritarian Erdogan.
• Financial markets will expect Berlin and EU to signal willingness to prop up the lira and stave off financial crisis on Europe’s periphery.
• A climate of sustained dialogue and reduced public friction between Turkey and major European powers would benefit NATO.