Russia makes uncertain bet with Afghan engagement

Subject

A revival in Russian diplomatic interest in Afghan peace efforts.

Significance

Russia's efforts to expand its diplomatic role in Afghan conflict resolution have switched gear in recent months. Moscow is now investing much more energy and political capital, apparently with the aim of taking the diplomatic lead instead of the United States.

Impacts

• Moscow's new engagement makes the presidential election even more important, especially if there are rival US and Russian contenders.
• Iran's current opposition to reconciliation efforts is a source of tension with Russia.
• The Russian initiative may win support from China, which has pushed for peace but is now against US control of the process.