Turkey’s Syrian goals will deepen the US breach

Significance

Erdogan’s New York meetings will include discussions of the troubled US-Turkish relationship. When a jailed US pastor returns to court in October on espionage charges, Turkey could step back and perhaps take some heat out of bilateral relations by releasing him. However, the chance of a full recovery in relations seems to have passed.

Impacts

• Turkey will further diversify defence procurement outside NATO.
• Better relations with Germany and the EU will counterbalance worsening US ties.
• Tourism will recover, switching to Russian and Far Eastern visitors.