Middle East jihadist splits will widen despite defeats

Significance

However, even in this extremity, it maintains a hostile attitude to old enemy Islamic State (IS). In Yemen, the other regional country where the two come into close contact, the local al-Qaida branch in its August 28 newsletter also strongly attacked IS, accusing it of fomenting intra-Muslim divisions.

Impacts

• Even those al-Qaida supporters claiming to see a more ‘moderate’ trend in IS only identify a long-term possibility of rapprochement.
• As the Syrian conflict winds down, IS and HTS may step up competition, as insurgent cells launch terrorist attacks from desert bases.
• Splits between the different al-Qaida branches could worsen as some seek more pragmatic alliances and others prioritise ideological purity.
• In Yemen, al-Qaida’s deeper societal roots will give it greater long-term resilience than IS.