Nigeria’s north-east displacement crisis will persist

Significance

Attacks by Boko Haram’s factions in north-eastern Nigeria have increased significantly in recent months. Ahead of the 2019 general election, President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration and the Borno State government want internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return to their home areas to reinforce their narrative that the government has boosted regional security. However, the policy may be making the humanitarian situation worse.

Impacts

• Military operations in northern Borno will advance ahead of formal election campaigning after party primaries in October.
• Opposition northern presidential candidates will use the humanitarian situation to undermine Buhari’s security credentials.
• Growing terrorist attacks will stretch military resources, already struggling to deal with multiple security crises nationwide.