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Damascus’s return to the south may feed future tension

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Significance

A six-week offensive regained control over the governorates of Deraa and Quneitra. However, stability has been undermined by recent Islamic State (IS) attacks and fears the area could be flashpoint in the Israel-Iran conflict.

Impacts

  • Cross-border trade with Jordan through the Nassib crossing will likely resume shortly, despite US pushback.
  • International rehabilitation of the Syrian government will accelerate as it seeks to resume diplomatic ties.
  • The government’s growing self-confidence will translate into an increase in repression across the areas it controls.
  • Russian efforts to return refugees will only deliver modest results, given Damascus’s lack of interest in retrieving hostile constituencies.

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