Russia will exploit Macedonian name row in Balkans

Significance

It will change if 50%+1 of the electorate participate and 50%+1 of them approve. The government’s greatest hope for winning the referendum may be to provoke the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) into boycotting it. The referendum question asks voters whether they favour EU and NATO membership in accepting the name agreement with Greece. VMRO-DPMNE’s insistence that the question refer solely to the name was ignored; its legislators did not participate in the parliamentary vote.

Impacts

• The name deal has redrawn Balkan geopolitics, bringing Athens and Skopje closer and marking Greece’s recovery of influence lost after 2008.
• The choice of a name that Bulgaria declared unacceptable embarrasses Sofia after its EU presidency prioritised the Western Balkans.
• NATO and EU strongly support the name deal, seeing it as Macedonia’s route towards Western institutions and away from Russian influence.