China will make rapid progress in autonomous vehicles

Subject

China's policies to develop the autonomous vehicle sector.

Significance

Chinese policymakers believe the size of their domestic market will give China’s vehicle makers the scale to lead the world in autonomous cars. The National Development and Reform Commission expects that 50% of new vehicles sold in China by 2020 will be ‘smart cars’, that is, with partial or fully autonomous functions.

Impacts

• Policies do not explicitly favour fleet vehicles over private cars, but fleet vehicles are likely to lead adoption.
• Self-driving fleet services are a future way to provide mobility for a growing elderly population.
• Regardless of international concerns about protectionism, all levels of government will use preferential procurement to support the sector.
• China's civilian autonomous vehicle sector will benefit from dual-use technology developed by the military.