Friday, July 20, 2018
Absent a coherent domestic opposition and international response, the crisis situation in Venezuela is becoming ‘normalised’ following President Nicolas Maduro’s May re-election. The PSUV congress may see some modest policy shifts to accommodate the deepening disaffection of the political left, but the trend is one of consolidation around Maduro’s ever-narrowing clique of military and partisan support.
- US ‘moral leadership’ on Venezuela will continue to ebb amid other US foreign policy distractions and ‘zero tolerance’ border policy.
- The merging of humanitarian assistance with political programmes risks discrediting humanitarian groups assisting Venezuelan migrants.
- Political change in Colombia and Mexico does not suggest improved capacity in Latin America to negotiate a peaceful solution.