Kazakh leader silent on apparent succession planning

Subject

President Nazarbayev's succession planning

Significance

With two years remaining before the next presidential election, Nursultan Nazarbayev has to decide whether to run (and win) yet again and begin a fourth decade in power, or to stand aside, perhaps assuming an ostensibly honorary role that gives him continuing political influence. The strengthening of the Security Council, which Nazarbayev chairs, may be designed to create such a position for him, and can thus be seen as a cautious early move in the succession process.

Impacts

• Concerns about domestic stability and terrorism will also serve as pretexts for crushing political opposition.
• Regional players, especially Russia and China, will seek to influence the choice of successor and future policy direction.
• Uzbekistan's example in 2016 shows that a succession can be orderly but former presidents' families may be at risk.