North Africa smuggling crackdowns risk unrest

Significance

North Africa has been in the headlines for smuggling of drugs, arms and people. Yet trade in licit goods such as fuel, foodstuffs and textiles dominates the illicit trade. Increasing pressure on these networks risks unintended consequences for regional stability.

Impacts

• The effectiveness of new border security initiatives will need to be balanced against the prospect of destabilising borderland economies.
• Local smuggling networks inform security services about terrorism-related developments on the border; smuggling crackdowns may reduce this.
• Industries that faced competition from smuggled goods, such as importers of fuel and Chinese-made consumer goods, will benefit.
• However, industries that have benefitted from cheap inputs via smuggling, such as agriculture and transport, stand to lose.