Eastern Ukraine faces more months of no war or peace

Significance

Despite frequent exchanges of fire, the conflict lines in eastern Ukraine remain static as the two sides hold entrenched military positions and are approximately evenly matched. The US delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles will boost Ukrainian morale and irritate Moscow but does not substantively alter the military dynamics.

Impacts

• With presidential and parliamentary elections due next year, Kyiv will opt for continuity over change in its eastern Ukraine policy.
• Painful concessions on political arrangements for the east could tip Kyiv into a damaging domestic political crisis.
• Kyiv’s relations with its Western backers will be shaped more by its willingness to reform than by conflict-related developments.