Gulf alliances leave Eritrea in hostile neighbourhood

Subject

Eritrea and regional geopolitics

Significance

Hoping to mitigate its international isolation, Eritrea has over recent years aggressively pursued new alliances with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), adding to its older but no less vital links with Egypt. However, shifting regional alignments in the wake of the 2017 Gulf crisis have placed Asmara squarely in the middle of some of the Arab world’s most serious political rifts, and greatly exacerbated tensions with its neighbours, with serious repercussions that the ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) will find it difficult to navigate.

Impacts

• Access to eastern Sudan will be curtailed for some time, creating economic challenges for the PFDJ.
• Eritrean opposition forces may secure increased external support, although, except for Ethiopia, most channels will remain covert.
• Qatar’s withdrawal from the disputed border with Djibouti will complicate Eritrea’s lobbying for an end to the UN arms embargo.