Brexit will pose risks to UK defence

Subject

Post-Brexit defence policy.

Significance

Much of the discussion surrounding the impact of Brexit on defence and security has focused on its effects on the EU. However, with the EU’s recent defence initiatives and London’s lack of a clear position on the future of EU-UK security cooperation, the United Kingdom could face greater risks than the EU.

Impacts

• UK-EU security and defence cooperation will probably remain largely unchanged until the transition period ends in December 2020.
• EU defence cooperation will continue to develop, regardless of input from the United Kingdom.
• Uncertainty over Brexit negotiations will make London more reluctant to take on leadership roles in joint EU projects.
• The United States, France, Germany, Japan and Australia are likely to be London’s main countries of focus for strengthening defence ties.