Iraqi Kurdish militias could return to fraught Kirkuk

Significance

Iraqi security forces took control of Kirkuk following a controversial independence referendum in September 2017. Since then, security in the area has deteriorated, with an increase in violence, bombings and attacks by Islamic State (IS), which was never actually defeated in nearby Hawija. The Kurds have lost influence as a result of the referendum and are unlikely to improve their negotiating position with Baghdad.

Impacts

• With Baghdad now paying KRI salaries and a new wave of reformist Kurdish parties emerging, relations with Erbil could slowly improve.
• Following the polls, a concerted attack on IS in Hawija will be a top priority, with army and peshmerga resuming former joint operations.
• The current Arab governor of Kirkuk is likely to be replaced by a Kurd willing to cooperate with Baghdad.
• If federal-KRI ties stabilise, Kurdish candidates in Kirkuk are likely to do better in local elections due in December.