US trade policy will target self-sufficiency

Subject

US trade policy.

Significance

US President Donald Trump announced on March 22 that within 15 days a list of more than 1,000 Chinese imports to be subject to 25% tariffs will be released for 30 days of public comment. This could herald wider protectionist policies: the rhetoric of Trump's team may suggest its goal is to establish 'fair' trade, letting markets determine pricing and observing copyrights and patents, but the move also represents a key step in the fundamental 15-year US policy shift towards autarky.

Impacts

• Forecasters were slow to see that US shale advances 15 years ago would alter energy markets -- now manufacturing too could change markedly.
• The United States may extend its shale experience to other sectors to reduce its imports substantially.
• If the United States becomes less dependent on certain regions for key imports, the government will gain foreign policy flexibility.