Congo insecurity may grow as public order unravels

Subject

Insecurity in eastern Congo

Significance

Generalised insecurity has gripped eastern Congo in early 2018. While no single event or specific dynamic has driven this destabilisation, a series of different trends suggest a deeper pattern of deterioration. Against the backdrop of increasing countrywide political protests in urban centres, the deteriorating security situation has had an impact not only on rural hotspots but also on larger cities once considered stable.

Impacts

• New security problems may cause further delays in the electoral calendar.
• Deteriorating security may drive a further expansion and fragmentation of eastern Congo's armed groups.
• Local economies will face increasing strains, with currency instability, displacement and insecurity impacting on productive activities.
• Already overstretched neighbouring countries may struggle to absorb significant new refugee flows.