Problems could derail Libya political transition push

Significance

With momentum stalled on negotiations to amend the 2015 political settlement for implementation, the UN has focused instead on preparing for new parliamentary and presidential elections before the end of 2018 as a solution to the political crisis in Libya.

Impacts

• Despite UN plans, elections are unlikely to take place before 2019.
• Failure to recognise the importance of sequencing risks perpetuating Libya’s anarchic transition period.
• Sustained oil sector recovery will not entice foreign investment back without a unified government.