Nigerian pastoralist conflicts could worsen

Subject

Nigerian pastoralist conflicts

Significance

Violent clashes between herdsmen and farmers have escalated and are undermining President Muhammadu Buhari’s security credentials in the run up to the 2019 elections. The violence is focused mainly in rural areas between ethnic Fulani pastoralists who rear cattle, and farmers from different ethnic groups. All regions are affected, but the highest levels of violence are in central and northern Nigeria. These farmer-herder conflicts have become a major national security issue and intersect with increased banditry and kidnapping.

Impacts

• The violence is occurring along communal, ethno-religious lines and will deepen Muslim-Christian and north-south divisions ahead of 2019.
• Clashes could increase in the late dry season (until the end of April) as herders seek access to pastures and water further south.
• Simplified media stereotyping of conflicts will exacerbate tensions between communities.