Modest Russian arms plan may dictate defensive posture

Significance

Cruise missiles are prioritised in Russia's rearmament programme to 2027, which is otherwise constrained by the prospect of only modest economic growth, making sustained high levels of defence spending impossible. Military planners are playing it safe by exploiting existing advantages to the full and allowing less successful industries to lag behind.

Impacts

• Moscow will attempt to maintain global stature by supplementing military capacity with unconventional propaganda and cyber means.
• Russia will maintain military dominance in the post-Soviet space through partnerships or support for rebel statelets.
• Active engagement in Syria will continue until a settlement, and a military presence will remain after that.
• Limited power projection capabilities will constrain military ties with Vietnam, Cuba and Venezuela.