Iranian and Israeli aims will clash again in Syria

Significance

Responding to a drone incursion on February 10, Israel lost its first military aircraft in combat since 1982, provoking a series of major raids against government and Iranian assets in Syria. Fears that this might escalate into a new war were quashed by Russian diplomatic engagement.

Impacts

• Iran’s increasingly sophisticated drone technology, reverse-engineered from US models, cannot match Israeli detection systems.
• Israel would likely look at diplomatic and covert means (ie, assassinations) before large-scale military action against Iranian interests.
• Right-wing members of Netanyahu’s cabinet could seek opportunities to outbid him in confronting Tehran.