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Mexico defections suggest rivals expect AMLO win

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Subject

Pre-campaign outlook.

Significance

A 60-day political pre-campaigning period will end on February 11, culminating in the official appointment of candidates to contest the federal posts up for grabs in July’s elections. Individual parties and coalitions are scheduled to register their electoral platforms and proposals with the electoral authorities by February 15, though the main coalitions have already done so.

Impacts

  • Three independents are likely to meet the requirements to contest the presidential election, potentially splitting the vote.
  • A fall in support as the race tightens could see AMLO revert to a more belligerent stance.
  • The successful presidential candidate could secure victory with only around one-third of the total vote.

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