Gulf monarchies may update power structures

Subject

Succession in Gulf Arab states.

Significance

While most systems in the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) vaguely follow patrilineal primogeniture, irregularities have occurred in each case, complicating claims of rightful leadership and making patterns less predictable. With younger generations coming to the fore in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in particular, questions of lawful succession are becoming more relevant.

Impacts

• Democratic reforms are unlikely, even more so thanks to US withdrawal from Gulf domestic concerns.
• Participation in government will be filtered through state institutions, rather than emerging independently.
• Foreign investment could be damaged by political uncertainty over succession issues and upcoming generational changes in Kuwait and Oman.